Pembrokeshire Rugby Forecasts
Saturday, 16th February 2013
There were a few matches played last weekend, including an away defeat for Narberth against the Cardiff students, plus Whitland at Bridgend Athletic, but there was a league win for Fishguard at home to Laugharne and a home win for Milford over Aberaeron in the Pembrokeshire KO Cup, which gives the Mariners a home semi final versus Haverfordwest.
But it's just past mid point in the season and I have had a look at which teams are challenging for promotion and which are fighting to stay in the league they are in.
SWALEC Championship
It's just over the half way point in the championship and that defeat to Cardiff Met has left Narberth in fourth place, five points off Met and 20 points off the top two. Just behind them, on try difference is Newbridge in fifth, with Llanharan four points behind in sixth place. The Otters' target has to be third place, and they'll hope to pick up points this Saturday in the local derby v Whitland. I played in a few of these and they're no place for the faint hearted. Whitland still prop up the table with eight points, two behind Pooler on 10 but another 10 behind the Wanderers in12th place. I'm going to go for a home win but it won't be easy for the Borderers.
Division Two (West):
In this Division our two teams are at opposite ends of the table. Crymych lie in fifth position on 29 points, four off Furnace in fourth and five points off Maesteg Harlequins, who occupy third spot. Crymych have built well after last season's escape and should be targeting a top four finish. But this week's away match versus Taibach, who lie in ninth place, looks a tough one now. Like Haverfordwest, Taibach are rejuvenated in 2013, but I'm going to go for a Crymych win, doing The Blues a favour at the same time.
Meanwhile, Haverfordwest are at the other end of the table in 11th place on 12 points, having played 12 matches. Penclawdd are just above them in tenth place on 14 points, having played ten matches, and then Taibach in ninth spot on 15 points having played 12. It seems between these three for the drop with Maesteg in free fall but nine points clear in eighth. The Blues have another tough one this weekend as Builth Wells journey to Pembroke Road, lying in top spot. But the Blues will be confident after two excellent wins in 2013. I'm going with my heart for a 2013 hat trick!
Division Three (West):
Can Tenby United still get promoted? At the end of October you'd have put a few bob on them but a drop in form has made the task a lot harder. They are the headline team on the WRU website right now with their win over Tumble closing the gap on the top two, Newcastle Emlyn (seven) points ahead and Amman United nine points), but both with games in hand. But there's a long way to go and Tenby have to get something out of Saturday's top of the table clash at Amman. I want a win but I can't see past Amman taking the spoils.
At the bottom of the table there are five teams in the relegation fight; Llandeilo are in eighth with 21 pts from 15, Cardigan are now in ninth with 20 from 14, Milford in 10th have 19 pts but games in hand, Lampeter are in 11th with 19 from 12, and Pontyberem bottom with 15 from 12. It's pretty tight and both Milford Haven and Cardigan have tough matches this Saturday. Cardigan start off after some great recent home form but travel to Pontarddulais who are in sixth spot. I think they'll struggle away and I forecast a home win.
Milford finally have a win under their belt, and the confidence of knowing they beat their opponents, Llanelli Wanderers at the Obs in October. But that was along time ago and the teams have moved in opposite directions. Milford need to get three or four wins to be safe but I don't think this will be one of them. Another home win.
Division Four (West):
Fishguard & Goodwick, in fourth place, must have built up a lot of confidence over the last couple of months and they will need it all this Saturday when they entertain league leaders Tycroes. The Seagulls have games in hand over third-placed Hendy who are two points ahead of them, but a victory over Tycroes would throw the promotion race wide open. If you're going to challenge for the top you have to win all your home games so I'm going for an F & G win.
Neyland welcome seventh-placed Furnace to the Athletic Ground and, sadly, I can't see further than a win for the Llanelli team.
Division Five (West):
It's all to play for in this division. Gowerton might be runaway leaders on 53 points but then come the New Dock Stars on 44, Uplands on 43, Pembroke on 40 and Pembroke Dock Quins on 39. So that second place is for the taking.
This weekend Pembroke have the best chance to make up ground as sixth-placed Bynea travel west. I am going for a Pembroke win at home.
The Quins have a tougher ask as Gowerton arrive at Bierspool. Can the Quins edge this one? I think the Swansea side might be that bit too strong.
At the other end of the table Pontyates have leapfrogged the Pembrokeshire sides to take ninth spot, on 21 points, followed by St. Clears on 14 (from 12), St Davids on 13 (from 14) and 12th placed Llangwm with nine points from 13.
Llangwm would do themselves and the south side teams a power of good by defeating the New Dock Stars at home. But I think they will have to look at other fixtures for the points they desperately need – so an away win.
St Davids might have a better chance versus eighth-placed Cefneithin at home. I am going for a home win on the basis that they can repeat their January form.